Mid-week bloop for the math nerds

Okay math-y people.  Time to check out a few things.

First, let's look at marathon comparisons:


Clearly this is an internet calculator based on a bunch of random variables.  But marathon running is based on a lot of random variables.  So because this calculator makes it look like I got a BQ in the bag, I like it.  The Georgia marathon is super hilly. And I think the coldest year I was wearing this:



It drizzled lightly for half the race and I was still warm. No space blanket needed.

So I am kind of hoping that while it's not too cold ('cause I'm a wuss) that the chilly weather will make me a little faster.  And the fact that the elevation changes are about a billion times easier than Atlanta should help.

I pulled together my paper training logs today:


I mostly started using it to log mileage and some workout data, but there are some key facts missing from some of my runs.  But I was able to create a table with some usable data.

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2013B
10	8:34	9:13	7:55	7:43		8:01
12		8:36	8:13	7:44	8:10	8:06
14	9:31	9:13	8:04	8:34	7:38	7:55
16		8:37	8:18	8:08	8:14	8:04
18			8:25	8:07	8:19	8:13
20	9:00ish	9:00	8:18	8:04	8:19	8:12
Fastest Mile Repeat		7:41	7:09	7:30	6:42	6:54
Fastest Tempo	8:13	7:57	7:31	7:28	7:10	7:33
Race time	4:01:09	3:59:08	3:50:36	3:52:01	3:43:18

The numbers in the left column are long runs 10-20 milers.  Everything else is pretty self-explanatory...to a runner anyway.  This isn't a perfect table because my overage mileage has increased--i.e. more mile repeats, longer tempos.  But the gist is there.

There are a couple of takeaways from this.

-I consistently run LSDs too fast. Who am I racing out there??

-I should have run a faster half last month based on this data, but then again, I do stop/start my watch for stoplights and when I refill my water bottles.

-I should have run a faster marathon in 2012. Guess I got complacent or something...Oh wait, that was I had lost my mojo and it was like, 80 degrees.

-Why have I not BQ'ed yet?

After this cutback week, I have one more 20 miler left on the schedule.  And then I taper down.  This past March I had a 2.5 week taper and I felt really good going into the race. Depending on my work schedule, I will try to aim to get that last 20 miler in around the same time.

Then it will be time for me to really start to obsess.  I am already obsessing about racing with my iPod--which I have never done before.  I always train with music, it makes me happy, and I think I might really want it when the spectators thin out in Rehoboth.  I just have to ensure that I have all my good songs loaded onto one play list so I am not losing time trying to skip songs. 

The other obsession is what to wear.  I hate being hot when I run, but I don't want to lose limbs because of my southern naivety.  I don't want to toss something keeping me warm if I need it later, but I don't want to run with stuff around my waist. Please, there is enough junk in the trunk...

Anyway, I'll obsess more when I am tapering.  And bother Loopville with all my questions.  You'd think after 5 marathons I'd know what I was doing. Lolololololol.